From Hyderabad, India: Minhaz Merchant – a media owner, blogger and opinion writer for Times of India – in one of his Op-Eds titled A New World Order aspires for the return of India to its 18th century prosperity at the top of the world.
The coming of America because of Coming to America had changed all that since the 19th for Britain, India, China and Europe. Novus Ordo Seclorum literally means New World Order.
The article has a picture of US president Barack Obama, eager and angry, facing the Indian prime minister, wanting to shake hands seeking partnership and India’s prime minister Manmohan Singh, turned away from Obama, gesturing closer economic and social integration because of similar political values. Merchant interprets Singh’s body language in the picture, wrongly, as India being non-committal.
Statistically, Merchant is correct when he cites the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that China could (not will) surpass the United States and the European Union by 2016 in its national output and that India would be woefully behind whether China ascends to the top or not. However, the angst of India’s rise need not mean China’s fall.
The integration of the former Communist states, Russia and China, after the Cold War into the new world order is creating flavors of political pluralism in the domestic governance of the transitioning political economies east of the iron curtain just as it had to its west after World War II. If Putin’s and Medvedev’s Russian Federation is aspiring to be Franco-German in its approach to democratic governance, China together with Taiwan wants to be Singapore and poses no threat to its neighbors besides being, as a matter of course of the awakening of the sleeping giant, a regional anchor as Germany and France are to continental Europe. Fickleness in foreign policy should not be India’s extended hand to Europe. The continent’s current sclerosis is a symptom of its long-term health.
If the sentiments of the littoral states neighboring China to its south east are to be respected, they could band together into their own region from the Koreas in the north to Indonesia in the south (including Singapore) and circumscribe China to itself, Mongolia, Taiwan and Hong Kong, along the lines of the political economic regional model of the European Union, as it integrates on its own timeline with the rest of the free world. There is no room, therefore, in this process for gratuitous military buildup in the South China Sea or in the Indian subcontinent to balance India with China, whatever the perspective of the US Department of Defense on the matter.
China, should it seek not to integrate but transition to perfect Marxism as some in China desire by effectively co-opting the markets through non-pluralistic governance (a model Putin’s Russia may also be following), becomes a threat to America, India and Europe.
The United States cannot afford a larger defense but can, a better albeit smaller defense and China does not want a large defense. US economic woes can risk America’s collapse in 2016 or soon thereafter in a debt and currency attack which only China can trigger. With it could come authoritarian governance to the rest of the world in response and in coexistence.
A better prepared world, in particular the US economy out of the Federal Reserve, to such a Chinese Confucian incursion that avoids armed conflict by steadily weakening the enemy in the run up to its aspiration for domination, can maintain the evolution to the new world order of 1776 of one world.