The Coming Perfect Storm

By Chandrashekar (Chandra) Tamirisa, (On Twitter) @c_tamirisa

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The morning after the presidential campaign kick-off of the incumbent, Barack Obama, a confluence of geopolitical risks to the American economy appears on the horizon, clouding the rising sun: Europe, Iran and China.

Euro unraveling in the neighborhood of Alexander the Great’s Macedonia – known as the Greek Isles – is testing the resolve of the union in Brussels, on the horizon of the continent where the European compact was conceived after World War II, to remain together, bedeviled by the ghosts from the world wars of the last century of Anglia and Saxony in Germania and of the Windsors across the channel tunnel. Meanwhile, private investment – the connecting tether of global finance – continues to flow into the beleaguered European south, confident in America’s cornucopia of money supply and in China’s interest in the predicament of the continent.

Under threat from United States, Germany, France, United Kingdom and Israel to embargo its oil exports by November 2012, in pre-emption, as we have advised Iran via Twitter in 2011, Iran is refusing to yield on its nuclear program by beginning to withdraw its exports from the global oil markets for domestic use as its inflation rises. The world does not yet know either the legitimate state of Israel’s nuclear capabilities or the sincerity of the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) to commit the world to absolute and total denuclearization in the global dance to rapprochement with the Persian adversary of the West from the days of antiquity.

Democracy of the Age of the Peloponnesian War of Thucidydes hangs in the balance in a Socratic test of populist wisdom in a majority of the Republican world of his academic pupil Plato, as China, the major non-Western non-pluralistic geopolitical anchor, prepares to hand-off power in Beijing in 2013 after the Bo Xilai incident in its neighborhood of simmering unrest in Afghanistan, Central Asia and Russia as America and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) prepare to exit the region by 2014.

The fall of Europe by election day morning in the United States in November implies the fall of America, de-leveraging the Israeli-American alliance in Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the rise of Russia and China across Eurasia, Africa and Latin America.

Europe must be saved, not with American money but with diplomacy, by supporting Germany’s fiscal compact for Europe through the European Central Bank (ECB) for all of the European Union (EU) countries and countries-in-waiting.

It is easier for China, which lives in interesting times, to embrace political pluralism after Hu Jintao than it is to risk its economic growth and aspirations since Mao Ze Dong.


About Chandrashekar (Chandra) Tamirisa
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