Former Director of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) General Michael V Hayden in the Tuesday, September 04, 2012 Elul 17, 5772 issue of Haaretz, the news from the land of Israel, as sent to me @1_776 on Twitter by H. Andrew Schwartz, Senior Vice President for External Relations at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) is suggesting that “Iran will achieve nuclear-weapons capability no earlier than 2013 or 2014, [and] that the U.S. would be better equipped to launch a military operation against the Islamic Republic than Israel.”
The 2013-2014 timeline appears to have arisen from the need for the US economy to return to at least some semblance of non-volatile strength to exert a strong foreign policy presence as I have been asking on Linkedin for sometime. United States needs two years to recover to stability, provided sensible policies are put into place now. Still, Mr Hayden’s certainty that the United States has the luxury to indeed wait until next year or 2014 seems to be misplaced.
The thinking behind any decision by the United States Congress and, thereby, the president to commit American military forces to war, is more complicated, taking comprehensively into account the interests of the United States, notwithstanding the fact that Israel, now a country 64 years old and stronger economically, politically and militarily than any of its neighbors including Saudi Arabia, is a US ally – religious and geopolitical.
United States of America is not Israel. It is time for us to set aside faith and fantasy, a legitimate explanation by the US Ambassador to Israel, Michael Oren, of America’s historical obsession with Israel, to be explicit – along the lines of former Secretary of State James A Baker III’s position on the country – that United States of America is not Israel, notwithstanding any speculation or theories about global Jewish cooperation or American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
International Rule of Law. We have no interest in preemptively incapacitating a legal Iranian nuclear program provided the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assures us and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) of the program’s legality in the context of the evolving global denuclearization regime: Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) with the Russian Federation, Fissile Material [Cut-Off] Treaty (FM[C]T), and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Natural Resources. United States is not interested in the region’s oil and gas or any other mineral wealth. Our interest, anywhere in the world, is to export our services in extractive industries on a contractual basis to help the countries who own their resources use them efficiently toward their own benefit.
Peace. We do not take lightly indiscriminate non-state or state-sponsored violence by any state anywhere in the world, including within the United States. We prefer that non-state actors be absorbed by the countries of their origins, small arms be eliminated in accordance with the United Nations (UN) Small Arms Treaty and that nations follow established codes of military conduct in settling their disputes, typically using armed conflict as a last resort if not altogether eliminated as a form of international engagement, obviously including expanding international rule of law on chemical and biological weapons to all weapons of mass destruction and behavioral control.
Arab Spring. Very encouraging to us are the autonomous pro-democracy movements from Tunisia, Libya and Egypt to Syria and, therefore, we do not see the situation in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as a simulacrum of World Wars I and II. There are neither foes nor allies. There are the post-World War II international institutions and processes through the United Nations as last resort.
Syria and Palestine. It is reported the Egypt’s new president Mr Morsi and Iran’s Mr Ahmadinejad are working on a coalition to address the nagging questions of Syria and the border dispute of Israel with Palestine.
Israel. The sovereign Hebrew state of Israel is not a member of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Israel’s nuclear program is unknown.
Iran. Iran’s incipient nuclear program raises regional concerns about nuclear safety, given accidents at Chernobyl and Three-Mile Island in Pennsylvania, and more recently at Fukushima. Iranian or other military naval movements around the world are expected by us to remain unprovocatively in international waters only, even if such movements are in the geographic vicinity of United States or NATO.
Indiscriminate violence. The prospect of indiscriminate provocative violence using leaked nuclear material, in the region and anywhere in the world, by Hezbollah, Iran, Hamas, or Israel to create conditions for an otherwise gratuitous war. An example, is the murder of Iran’s nuclear scientist, CIA espionage using Iranian citizens, and infiltration of the Pentagon by Israel.
1. United States and NATO must move to open talks and include Iran, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea to achieve global zero by 2032.
2. Iran is encouraged by us to work with us during the NATO transition out of Afghanistan to continue to help the country stabilize after 2014.
3. The Russian Federation is asked to abandon any missile defense programs of its own.
4. We should begin preparing our exit from the Persian Gulf and leave MENA to safeguard its oil/gas and natural resource traffic.
5. (UN) Small Arms Treaty be ratified by the United States Congress to prevent the escalation of small conflicts in Africa, Syria, Latin America and elsewhere into full-blown civil wars.
6. Any unprovoked attacks on US assets physically, either on US soil, in international waters or anywhere else in the world, will be cause for immediate declaration of war against the perpetrators with commensurate force to stanch all such future attacks, unlike in the 1990s by the Clinton Administration.
7. FMT/NPT be ratified by the United States Congress and implemented by all current and potential nuclear UN member states, including UNSC Perm-5, Iran, India, North Korea, and Pakistan. Not doing so, in the presence of evidence of proliferation of unauthorized nuclear material, will be cause for declaration of war by United States and NATO.